All
Forever
timely words sung by George Harrison, one of the many great people the world
lost in 2001. This was a year many are eager to leave behind. Any attempt to sum
up the year 2001 is quickly haunted by the tragedy of that terrible day in
September and its still unfolding aftermath. Like 2001, this strange state of
shock in which we find ourselves must, eventually, also pass.
One
of the things Mr. Harrison was likely trying to get across in that great song is
that although all things must pass, in this passing there is always some kind of
rebirth, usually in the form of experience gained, lessons learned and values
strengthened. We will all interpret, or bring away from things that pass
different kinds of rebirth, different lessons learned. If we allow ourselves to
do so, we can experience tremendous growth from death, as individuals and even
as societies and nations. I just keep hoping, and believing, that from the ashes
of 2001, the shoots and blossoms of the new millennium will emerge and thrive.
If ever there were a time for healing, optimism and regrowth, now is such a
time. This goes for the economy as well, which still seems to be wringing out
its excesses.
I’m
not going to continue to ramble on about what I think humanity should learn from
this strange year, humanity rarely gives a damn about what I have to say anyway,
but I would like to mention a few other things about this year’s passing that
may have been forgotten, or even left undiscovered, or crowded out by the
media’s feeding frenzy on war and death and the struggle that seems to me to
all be the result of an inevitable globalization. Much of the world has a
problem with the way some of the world is growing and developing and expanding,
and this struggle will not end anytime soon. It’s almost as if this friction
is heating up the planet as much as the greenhouse effect…
2001 one of warmest years on record
In
mid-December a United Nations weather agency called the World Meteorological
Organization (WMO) reported that the average temperature on Earth for the year
2001 is expected to be the second warmest since global records began about 140
years ago. WMO officials cited this data and the trend of the most recent
decades as more proof of human influenced global warming. Some of the
consequences include more severe droughts and storms, and the agricultural and
economic troubles that come along with those kinds of events.
“Temperatures are getting hotter, and they are getting hotter
faster now than at any time in the past,” said Michel Jarraud, the
organization’s deputy secretary-general.
According to the WMO the global average surface temperature in 2001
was expected to be 57.96 degrees Fahrenheit. The record, set in 1998, was 58.24
degrees Fahrenheit. Nine of the 10 warmest years in the last four decades have
occurred since 1990, and temperatures are rising three times faster than in the
early 1900s.
Carbon dioxide produced from burning fossil fuels is the most
prevalent of the infamous greenhouse gases, whose growing concentration in the
atmosphere is thought to be warming the Earth. Many scientists believe the
warming, if not stopped, will cause severe climate changes over the next
century.
Few critics disagree that global warming exists. But opinions
diverge when scientists forecast the severity of the temperature hikes and their
effects. Climate is a complex system of nature interacting with itself, such as
weather patterns squeezed between the forces of the atmosphere and the physical
terrain of the earth’s surface. The most severe long term effects could
include literally a shift in life on earth as we know it. Desert regions could
become tropical forests and vice versa, places where we now grow corn and beans
may be better suited for wheat, or rice, or nothing at all depending on the
place and the severity of the climate shifts.
At a two-week conference in
The WMO agrees that predictions for world temperatures 50 or 100
years from now are extremely difficult to make, but emphasizes that “continued
pollution at today’s rate - or faster - presents several risks, especially a
rise in sea-levels” as polar ice melts. “Many of the world’s fastest
developing cities are by the sea, and they could face floods, land erosion, and
the pollution by salt water of fresh water supplies.”
Bush pulls
The Bush administration decided that the proposed missile defense
system, which might work in
some situations (can a speeding bullet shoot down a speeding bullet?), is
worth scrapping years of progress in nuclear arms and other weapons reduction
agreements between the U.S. and Russia. Despite objections from many in the
public, groups like the Union of Concerned Scientists, numerous other nations
and many in congress, all of whose voices were overshadowed by recent events,
Bush officially announced the U.S. withdrawal from the 1972 ABM treaty earlier
this month. Although they certainly could have objected more loudly, there was
little congress could do legislatively to interfere with the withdrawal. The
strong public support for a general national defense was certainly a
contributing factor as well.
Critics express legitimate fears about the $80 billion system,
which has not been proven to be fully functional or effective. Unfortunately,
such a shield would have done nothing to prevent the attacks on September 11.
This is the first time in history that the
Congressional shift
Political
battles continue, and the course of legislation has certainly been detoured by
the power given to the democrats, most recently in the “economic stimulus”
legislation. Sometimes gridlock is good, especially when the will of the people,
as expressed in the strange presidential election of 2000, seems difficult to
represent. While stating that he has no regrets about his controversial
decision, Senator Jeffords said “I accomplished my major goal, and that was to
try to make sure that when we did things, we would do them evenhanded, thinking
about the people rather than the party.”
The Recession
Knowing
whether you are near a peak or a valley, and how long you will coast along
gently before the next turn, is almost impossible when you are blindfolded and
riding a roller coaster. Throw in a war and the near-certainty of a return to an
era of deficit spending on military and other programs, and you’ve really got
an interesting situation. The various “experts” will give you different
forecasts, but many of the market’s problems are very similar those of the
last transition to a new year. The outlook for the economy, corporate profits
and the price of stocks remains, well, unclear. However the consensus seems to
be that this recession too will pass, possibly by mid-2002.
As
we’ve said before, this is as much an opportunity as it is a crisis. We should
all be thankful for the food on our plates and the warmth of our homes. We can
live without an overrated concern for profits. Perhaps the kind of economy
we’ve been living in is not a healthy one. Like forests and grasslands, which
need to burn once in a while in order to rejuvenate themselves, sometimes human
institutions need to be reinvented.
We
have the opportunity to initiate growth through investing in clean water and
clean energy. We can invest in efficiency, in smart and sustainable growth, and
in the health of all the life around us, without which we would be lifeless
ourselves.
To
start anew, with the knowledge and wisdom gained in past experiences, respecting
our values and what is truly important, is always a great opportunity.
Adam J. Coppock